Highlights:
- Drowning deaths during winter are rising, particularly in regions with warmer winters.
- Children under nine and adults aged 15-39 are most vulnerable.
- Frequent freeze-thaw cycles weaken ice, increasing risks for winter activities.
The researchers found that the highest number of drownings occurred when air temperatures ranged from -5°C to 0°C. These incidents often happened in areas where traditional practices, such as ice fishing and snowmobiling, required spending extended time on ice.
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Children under nine years old and adults aged 15 to 39 were identified as the most vulnerable groups. Lead author Sapna Sharma, an associate professor at York University, emphasized the disconnect between global warming and its local impacts. “People don’t always realize how global warming affects winter traditions ingrained in our culture,” she said.
Sharma explained that frequent freeze-thaw events weaken ice, creating unstable conditions. “It might be minus 20°C today, but if last week was warm and sunny, the ice may still be unsafe,” she warned.
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Global Warming and Ice: Why Winter Is Becoming More Dangerous
Robert McLeman, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, added that milder temperatures result in thinner, weaker ice. “People go out on the ice not realizing it’s rotten,” he said.
The study analyzed around 4,000 records over 26 years from countries including Canada, Finland, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. The findings revealed that most drownings occurred in spring when rising temperatures compromise ice stability. Warmer weather also encourages more outdoor activities, increasing the risk.
Snow cover further complicates safety. While snow can give the impression of thick ice, it acts as an insulator, speeding up melting. Sharma urged individuals to adapt their decision-making to account for changing winter conditions.
“It may not be as safe now as it was 30 or 40 years ago,” she said, emphasizing the need for awareness as climate change reshapes winter environments.